Global Journal of Human Social Science, E: Economics, Volume 21 Issue 4

e) Short-Run Analysis of ARDL Table 4: Result of Short-Run Analysis of ARDL Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(LNGS(-1)) -0.362844 0.053651 -6.763049 0.0000 D(LNGS(-2)) -0.371500 0.041358 -8.982546 0.0000 D(LNGS(-3)) -0.507882 0.030235 -16.79802 0.0000 D(LNINT) -0.008119 0.056850 -0.142809 0.8880 D(LNINT(-1)) 0.130041 0.054674 2.378472 0.0287 D(LNINF) 0.021211 0.008764 2.420268 0.0263 D(LNINF(-1)) -0.023879 0.008491 -2.812294 0.0115 D(LNINF(-2)) -0.018072 0.007541 -2.396547 0.0276 D(LNGDP) 1.236912 0.736604 1.679209 0.1104 D(LNGDP(-1)) 0.663201 0.676282 0.980658 0.3398 D(LNGDP(-2)) -0.709099 0.726844 -0.975586 0.3422 D(LNGDP(-3)) -1.752997 0.664443 -2.638298 0.0167 D(LNREM) 0.157008 0.062506 2.511872 0.0218 D(LNREM(-1)) 0.409585 0.054956 7.453029 0.0000 D(LNREM(-2)) 0.504683 0.042967 11.74581 0.0000 D(LNREM(-3)) 0.197701 0.044943 4.398973 0.0003 CointEq(-1)* -0.187539 0.015477 -12.11703 0.0000 R-squared 0.977401 Mean dependent var 0.040433 Adjusted R-squared 0.961679 S.D. dependent var 0.168222 S.E. of regression 0.032931 Akaike info criterion -3.692219 Sum squared resid 0.024942 Schwarz criterion -2.974445 Log likelihood 90.84438 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.432695 Durbin-Watson stat 1.536555 Table 4 shows the short-run ARDL result summary that indicates in the short-run impact of interest rate on gross saving is negative but not statistically significant that is in the current year, increase in interest rate decrease the saving rate. The result also reveals that inflation and remittance have a positive with significant impact and GDP has an insignificant positive impact on gross savings in Bangladesh. Estimated results also exhibit that the sign of the lagged error correction representations (ECM t-1 ) is negative and statistically significant at 5 percent indicates the speed of adjustment toward long- run equilibrium. The coefficient of -0.19, for instance, implies that approximately 19 percent disequilibrium from the previous year’s shock converges on the long-run equilibrium in the current year. The result reveals that the 2 value is 0.97, which reflects that 97 percent variation of the dependent variable explained by the independent variables. The value of adjusted 2 is 96 percent. The Durbin–Watson (D–W) value is 1.536555, which confirms that no autocorrelation among the variables. The statistics’ ( 2 , Adj. 2 ; D–W) results show that our model is robust and well fitted. Volume XXI Issue IV Version I 37 ( E ) Global Journal of Human Social Science - Year 2021 © 2021 Global Journals An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate and Domestic Savings in Bangladesh