Global Journal of Human Social Science, E: Economics, Volume 22 Issue 2

D(DD) -7657.213 9652.808 -0.793263 0.4369 D(TR) 1.992309 0.917593 2.171233 0.0421 ECM -.0737842 0.296514 -4.140920 0.0005 R-squared 0.874379 Mean dependent var 800301.3 Adjusted R-squared 0.817849 S.D. dependent var 1370378. S.E. of regression 584865.2 Akaike info criterion 29.65735 Sum squared resid 6.84E+12 Schwarz criterion 30.12442 Log likelihood -434.8603 Hannan-Quinn criter. 29.80677 F-statistic 15.46765 Durbin-Watson stat 1.589486 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 The short-run analysis of the relationship between manufacturing sector performance (manu- facturing sector) and the independent variables as captured in the model (1) of table 5.9 specification indicated that Tariff (TR), foreign direct investment (FDI), capital stock (KS), Labour stock (LS) and human capital (H) positively impacted on the manufacturing sector. Though, in spite of the positive impact these variables on the manufacturing performance, it was discovered that they influence were not statistically significant at 5% level except capital stock (KS) tariff (TR). Other predictors; openness of the economy (OPN), real exchange rate (RER) and Dutch Disease (DD) revealed a negative influence on the manufacturing sector but non statistically significant at 5% level. The combined influence of the predictors on the manufacturing sector or its performance was documented by the coefficient multiple of determination (R-squared) which was overly high at (0.87) indicating a good fit of the model. this implies that about 87% of variation in the manufacturing sector (Performance) is explained by the variables in the model leaving 0.13 (13%) unexplained. MPt =-106770.7+4.68KS+ 0.101LF+ 0.0306H -4392.2OPN-3726.8RER +1.6FDI -7657.2DD + 1.992309TR (-0.419) (7.345) (0.516) (0.934) (-0.606) (-0.288) (1.863) (-0.793) (2.171) Note that t-ratios of the parameters are in parentheses as indicated. From the above, the estimated rate of change of the conditional mean of MP with respect to KS, LF, H, OPN, RER, FDI, DD and TR one unit change in KS will make MP to increase by 4.68 while a unit change in LF will increase manufacturing performance by 3.06%. At the a priori, the relationship between KS, LF, H, OPN, FDI and TR is supposed to be positive while that of RER and DD is negative. If all other variables are fixed, then for each unit change in LF, MP changes by 0.03 units. The estimated co efficient of Error Correction Term (ECM) is – 0.737. This is highly significant with theoretical valid signs. This indicates that 73% of the disequilibrium in manufacturing performance is corrected in the next years. In other words, the speed of adjustment to disequilibrium in manufacturing performance in short-run is 73%, consequently whenever there is misalignment in the short run disequilibrium is appreciated within a year. The result suggests a high speed of convergence to equilibrium whenever there is a dis-equilibrating shock. The F-statistics of 15.47 and with Durbin- Watson of 1.59 suggest good fit and without serial correlation model. i. MODEL1: LONG-RUN LNMP (OLS) Table 5.2: MODEL (2) LONG-RUN ANALYSIS Dependent Variable: LNMP Method: Least Squares Sample: 1980 2010 Included observations: 31 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -77.04177 12.05948 -6.388483 0.0000 LNKS -0.268654 0.144901 -1.854051 0.0772 LNLF 6.294461 0.937134 6.716713 0.0000 LNH -0.600596 0.246474 -2.436752 0.0234 LNOPN -0.550812 0.242402 -2.272307 0.0332 LNRER -0.606325 0.191146 -3.172049 0.0044 LNFDI 0.050960 0.069126 0.737212 0.4688 Volume XXII Issue II Version I 76 ( ) Global Journal of Human Social Science - Year 2022 © 2022 Global Journals E Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector