Global Journal of Human Social Science, E: Economics, Volume 23 Issue 3

To estimate the coefficients of the long-run relationship, the ARMA maximum likelihood method is used because of the presence of an autoregressive term. The results of the estimation are presented in Table 4. Table 4: Results of the estimates of the long-term coefficients. Dependent variable: Real GDP per capita Explanatory Variables Parameters Capital stock per capita 0.157 (6.432) *** Work 0.1056 (9.543) *** Exports 0.638 (7.654) *** Dum 2 2018 - 2.235 (- 2.679) ** Dum 3 2020 0.079 (3.249) ** Dum 4 2021 -0.875 (4.120) *** Constant - 2.785 (-2.09)* 2 =0.654 2 adjusted = 0.643 AR(1) = 0.798 (0.000) Fisher statistic (F) = 823.65 (0.000) Number of observations (N) = 62 Jarque-Bera = 2.03 (0.612) ARCH(1) = 0.875 (0.402) ARCH(2) = 0.736 (0.887) Heteroscedasticity (Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey) = 15.643 (0.082) Sources: Author’s results. Numbers in brackets are t-ratios. For diagnostic test statistics, numbers in brackets are p-values. ***, ** and * = significance at 1%, 5% and 10%. The results in Table 4 report the diagnostic tests which indicate that the adopted specification is globally satisfactory. The Jarque-Bera test does not reject the hypothesis of normality of errors. The tests carried out to detect the presence of ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) and Breusch-Pagan- Godfrey residuals in the estimated equation do not reveal any heteroscedasticity problems at the 5% threshold. The dummy variables were introduced to improve the specification of the model. The estimates indicate that the capital stock, labour and exports have a positive and significant long-term impact on economic growth. In other words, the export promotion policy was not neutral with respect to economic growth, i.e. real GDP growth depends on the increase in exports in the long run. Such a result supports the hypothesis that economic growth is driven by exports. This result is consistent with part of the theory. An increase in the capital stock and exports of 10%, for example, can lead to an increase in the economic growth rate of 15.7%. An increase in population of 10% will result in an additional real GDP increase of 10.56%. The closure of Nigeria’s border (Dum 2018) with Benin has a significantly negative impact on Benin’s economic growth. The weight of this border closure in Benin’s economy has induced a 2.235% decrease in GDP. Agricultural exports are heavily exported to Nigeria, and this closure has also led to low incomes for farmers in the active population, which is only 30%. On the other hand, the advent of COVID 19 (Dum 2020) has a significantly positive impact on growth in Benin. This result is the result of the efforts made by the Beninese state to accompany the subsidies granted to various enterprises in order to cushion the shocks induced by COVID19. An increase in the impacts of COVID19 led to an increase of 0.079% in © 2023 Global Journals Volume XXIII Issue III Version I 6 Global Journal of Human Social Science - Year 2023 ( )E Analysis of Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Benin 2 Closing of the Nigerian border 3 The advent of COVID 19 4 War in Ukraine