Global Journal of Human Social Science, E: Economics, Volume 23 Issue 3

economic growth in Benin. The war in Ukraine (Dum 2021), on the other hand, has a significantly negative impact on economic growth in Benin. Thus, an increase in the impact of the war in Ukraine leads to a 0.875% reduction in economic growth in Benin. The closure of the Nigerian border and the war in Ukraine have had significantly negative impacts on agricultural growth in Benin. The existence of cointegration implies that causality tests are carried out, according to the sequential approach, using a vector error correction model. The results of these tests, reported in Table 6, do not reveal any short- or long-term causality between exports and economic growth in the Granger sense. Table 5: Results of Granger causality tests Sources: Author 2022 Results To complete and ensure the results of the Granger test, the causality test according to the approach suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) will be performed. Indeed, several uncertainties related to the Granger sequential approach have been identified due to the nonprecision of the stationarity tests and the number of lags of the VAR model used to perform the Granger causality test. The results of all these tests are reported in Table 6. Table 6: Results of Toda and Yamamoto causality tests k dmax Variables dependent Causal variable Ln(Y) Ln(K) Ln(L) Ln(X) 1 1 Ln(Y) ----- 4.15 (0.26) 0.734 (0.56) 0.23 (0.888) Ln(K) 0.65 (0.734) ----- 3.43 (0.542) 0.439 (0.787) © 2023 Global Journals Volume XXIII Issue III Version I 7 Global Journal of Human Social Science - Year 2023 ( )E Analysis of Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Benin Source of causality (independent variable) Short term Long-term Dependent ∆ln(Y)t Variables ∆ln(K)t ∆ln (L)t ∆ln(X)t ∆ln(Y) t / λ t-1 ln(K)t / λ t-1 ∆ln (L)t / λ t-1 ∆ln(X)t / λ t-1 K = 3 ∆ln(Y)t --- 3.77 (0.51) 9.421 (0.04)* * 2.683 (0.716) -0.226 (-2.4)* ------ 5.65 (0.21) 7.69 (0.23) 5.548 (0.37) ∆ln(K)t 3.23 (0.32) --- 4.125 (0.531) 2.591 (0.782) ----- 6.321 (0.23) ----- 3.785 (0.53) 5.498 (0.36) ∆ln (L)t 0.52 (0.86) 4.75 (0.56) ---- 2.521 (0.684) ----- 3.109 (0.71) 3.502 (0.52) ----- 2.79 (0.73) ∆ln (X)t 0.74 (0.97) 7.26 (0.08)* 5.658 (0.338) --- ----- 2.542 (0.82) 5.65 (0.34) 3.67 (0.56) ----- Notes: ** and * = significance at 5% and 10%. The reported statistics are Chi-squares. Numbers in brackets refer to p- values. The numbers in the λ t-1 column refer to the coefficients of the Johansen-derived recall terms, and those in parentheses are the t-statistics associated with these coefficients. The selection of k is based on the SC criterion. λ t-1(t-stat)