Global Journal of Human Social Science, F: Political Science, Volume 22 Issue 5

minimal policy space to counter these effects of external shocks (Kammer et al, 2022). The countries progress in reducing the Global Hunger Index scores are lowest in Africa, notably i n Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Therefore, South Africa's D aily Maverick n ews cautioned that the impact of Russia’s Ukraine war will "be felt in every village and town of South Africa and the world". African oil- and gas-producing countries, like Nigeria a nd Angola , might profit from the rising energy prices. Also, with the price of Ukrainian sunflower oil skyrocketing, buyers are switching to palm oil, which hit record h ighs on futures m arkets in ear ly March 2022. Palm oil is a staple crop in West Africa (McNair, 2022). Yet, whether the poor and needy will also profit is highly unlikely given the gross inequality and widespread corruption prevailing in these countries 2 . The cost of food and transport is likely to hit the roof, with knock-on effects on the prices of nearly all other products, pushing up inflation. Source: Grebmer, 2015: 15 Graph 5: Country progress in reducin g Global Hunger Index s cores Yet, famines are difficult to predict because of the multitude of intervening factors, ranging from agricultural production and trade estimates, market price variability, weather forecasts and conflicts. The two major sources of uncertainty were associated with complex weather phenomena and social and political conflict, with uncertainty in weather forecasts being twice as important as conflict. Case studies from the Horn of Africa revealed that complex weather phenomena were twice as significant as the conflict in food security projection errors (Krishnamurthy et al, 2020). Moreover, the specific land tenure arrangements complicate predictions. Thus, Man-made calamities such as decentralized extensive agricultural, pastoral activities and forest clearing contribute to environmental damages and consequent food shortages. Insecure land tenure often diminishes agricultural productivity which, notably in times of drought, exacerbates famine (Azadi, H. et al, 2021). Pastoralists in East Africa, for example, experience food insecurity more frequently than do non-pastoralists (Coughlan de Perez, et al., 2019). Especially bread prices are a major driver of political instability. 2 Arab Spring Already in the early 2010s, they had triggered the . In North Africa, the Maghreb 2 According to governmental data from 2020, the overall Gini coefficient i n Nigeria was 35.1 points as of 2019, based on World Bank estimate, i.e. rank 43 out of 159 (lowest inequality) (statista.com, 2022). Angola ranked 45, South Africa has by far the highest income inequality worldwide (rank 1) (indexmundi.com, 2022). As for corruption, Nigeria ranked 154, Angola 136 and South Africa 70 out of 180 countries; in 2021. Perceived corruption was most pronounced in South Sudan (rank 180) (Corruption Perception Index, Transparency International, 2021): © 2022 Global Journals Volume XXII Issue V Version I 4 ( ) Global Journal of Human Social Science - Year 2022 F Will Putin’s Ukraine War Provoke Famine and Upheaval in Africa ?