Global Journal of Human Social Science, F: Political Science, Volume 22 Issue 5

countries Morocco , Algeria, Tunisia an d Libya, as well as Egypt, which all are heavily dependent on wheat, will probably be among the worst affected (Kohnert, 2022). On the other hand, there exists a long-standing close relationship with these countries which is reflected by close military cooperation. The largest African customers of Russian arms, in order of sales, were Egypt, Algeria, Sudan, and Angola. Along with Russia’s support to Libyan warlor d Khalifa Hifter, the commander of the Tobruk - based Libyan National Army, this consolidated Moscow’s presence along the southern flank of the European members of NATO . Thereby, it opened up Russia's influence in the eastern Mediterranean and enabled it to threaten strategic global junctions like the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab Strait a t th e Gulf of Aden ( Nyabiage, 2022a). Therefore, it is not unlikely that Moscow will give these governments preferential treatment also concerning food exports. Source: Heidland, et al, 2022 Graph 6: Change in wheat and cereals imports (in %) Ukrainian trading stop, probable long-term effects According to model analyses of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, North African countries would be particularly affected (Heidland, et al, 2022). For example, more than 30 % of the wheat consumed in Morocco comes from the Ukraine which is the second- largest exporter of wheat to Africa. Also, Tunisia and Egypt would be hit hard. In Tunisia, wheat imports could permanently fall by more than 15 %, while imports of other grains would fall by almost 25 % in the simulation. In Egypt, the Ukrainian wheat export shortfall would result in over 17 % being imported, and imports of other cereals would decrease by 19 %. Cairo asked already the IMF for support in reminiscence of the bloody bread riots during the Arab Spring (Saleh, 2022). South Africa would import 7 % less wheat and over 16 % less other cereals. Imports of other cereals would be also lower in Cameroon (-14 %), Algeria and Libya (-9.6 %). Wheat imports would drop significantly in Ethiopia (-9.6 %), Kenya (-7.9 %), Uganda (-7.1 %), Morocco (-6.2 %), and Mozambique (-6 %) (Heidland, et al, 2022; Schiller, 2022; Kohnert, 2022). Putin’s Ukraine war and the resulting Western sanctions already started to disrupt supply and pushed up prices worldwide, also in Africa. Wheat, corn, sunflower oil and fertiliser are among the products most affected, along with oil, compounding the impact of political instability and drought (Nyabiage, 2022). In Egypt f or example, the commodity flow has been already disrupted in March 2022, both by the war and the sanctions against Russia. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine had supplied more than 80 % of Egypt’s wheat needs for its estimated 102 million citizens, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Egypt buys 12 to 13 million tonnes of wheat annually. Quite aware of political implications, the government of General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi k ept its subsidies on bread despite previous pressure from the IMF t o drop them (Nyabiage, 2022). © 2022 Global Journals Volume XXII Issue V Version I 5 ( ) Global Journal of Human Social Science - Year 2022 F Will Putin’s Ukraine War Provoke Famine and Upheaval in Africa ?