Global Journal of Human Social Science, F: Political Science, Volume 22 Issue 5

IV. W ill R ussia use W heat and E nergy as G eostrategic W eapons to H andpick A frican C ountries for C ooperation? Source: Melikian, 2020 Graph 11: Production target in Russia, all grains (Mt) – optimistic scenario Russia has the potential to destabilize the world over the food issue. However, 80 % of its grain exports are exported via Ukrainian ports like Mariupol a nd Odessa. Russia’s bombing of these ports will impact on its exports (Admin, 2022). Regarding the Ukrainian delivery failure because of the war, Russia is also causing food shortages in many countries. Thus, Moscow announced in mid-March 2022 that it would restrict the export of wheat, barley, rye and other grains. African governments could be held to ransom by Moscow because of their high dependency on Russian wheat exports (Admin, 2022). Moreover, Moscow was looking for new markets. For example, it had sent test batches of wheat and other agricultural products to different countries. Also, it strengthened its position in existing ones, such as countries in North Africa, Turkey a nd the Middle East. To hedge its ‘closed shop’, Russia tried to develop not only the ports of the Black Sea but also in the Far East, the Caspian and the Baltic p orts (Melikian, 2020; Lu et al, 2022). To counter this threat, Brussels wants to try to close the global food gap as much as possible. Yet, the EU up to now is a net exporter of wheat. To increase production the EU Commission p roposed to set up an aid package for farmers amounting to € 500 m. This, however, is difficult to match with the EU’s competing environmental goals and its proposed switch to less intensive agriculture as part of the Green Deal climate and environmental package. As a consequence, about 13 % less food would be produced by EU member countries (Admin, 2022). Yet, the German environmental party argues that it would make more sense to limit the consumption of animal foods so that less agricultural land is required for animal feed. According to them, up to 70 % of the raw materials produced on agricultural land in Europe end up in tanks or troughs (Admin, 2022). Source: Muftuoglu, 2021 Graph 12: EU soft wheat exports mn t © 2022 Global Journals Volume XXII Issue V Version I 9 ( ) Global Journal of Human Social Science - Year 2022 F Will Putin’s Ukraine War Provoke Famine and Upheaval in Africa ?