Global Journal of Human Social Science, F: Political Science, Volume 23 Issue 6

Homicide Rates in Fragile Democracies: Reflections on the Paradoxes of Latin America Jaime Luiz Cunha de Souza α & Luis Fernando Cardoso e Cardoso σ Abstract- This article analyzes the relationship between the quality of democracy and homicide rates in Latin America. Our hypothesis is that governments with authoritarian tendencies in Latin America do not necessarily have higher homicide rates than those without these tendencies. Our research focuses analyzing the “quality” of democracy in four countries: Brazil and Colombia, categorized as "weak democracies", and Peru and Bolivia, considered "hybrid regimes." Secondary data obtained from the Economist Intelligence Unit , Our World in Data and the World Bank Group websites were used for this analysis. Findings indicate that weakening of institutions is an important contributor to homicide rates in weak democracies (Brazil and Colombia). However, this factor has less of an impact on homicide rates in hybrid regime countries (Peru and Bolivia), where the fragility of democracy coexists with lower homicide rates. Keywords: latin america; fragile democracies; state institutions; homicides. I. I ntroduction his article seeks to analyze the relationship between homicide rates and different government regimes to determine if democracies with “weaker” institutions tend to have higher homicide rates. Research focused on data from four countries: Brazil and Colombia - both classified as "weak democracies" by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU, 2022) - and Peru and Bolivia - classified by the same institute as "hybrid regimes." All countries suffer from the deterioration of democratic institutions, albeit to different degrees with a differential impact on homicide rates. The term "weak democracies" refers to political regimes whose institutions formally exist but have flaws that compromise the consolidation of democracy. Flaws stem from factors, such as corruption, clientelism, inefficient governance and a loss of trust in public institutions (Boulding, 2010, Kapstein and Converse, 2008; Levitsky and Murillo, 2013; Waldmann, 2006). Also, present is political interference from powerful elites and a lack of state autonomy (Levitsky and Murillo, 2013; Levitsky and Way, 2012). Although data sources make a distinction between "weak democracies" and "hybrid regimes,” we decided not to focus our analysis on this distinction due to its tenuous nature; thus, for the purposes of this theoretical reflection, all the countries mentioned are considered “weak democracies.” Analyses were based on secondary data extracted from the annual reports and historical series available on the websites of the Economist Intelligence Unit , Our World in Data and the World Bank Group , organizations with a long tradition of expertise in organizing data on social phenomena and global issues. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is a research and consulting firm that provides economic and political analyses for organizations around the world; Our World in Data (OWID) is a non-profit organization that makes data on important global issues available to the public; the World Bank Group (WBG) is an international financial institution that provides loans and assistance to developing countries. These institutions are interested in issues related to democracy, crime and homicide rates, as these factors affect economic development, poverty and contribute negatively to economic development. By analyzing the fragility of democracy in Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, this article has the potential to contribute new insights to the social and political sciences. To date, little research has been conducted on the fragility of democracy and/or weakening of democratic institutions and their effects on violence, especially homicide rates. This discussion is particularly relevant today because some democratic countries, including those with consolidated democracies, are facing new challenges as authoritarian rulers come to power. At its core, our analysis focuses on the relationship between weakened democracies and homicide rates; we seek to verify if homicide rates in countries with authoritarian tendencies differ from those without these tendencies. II. L iterature R eview Democratic fragility and the rise of authoritarian regimes are phenomena that marked Latin American history throughout the 20th century. These processes extended into the first decades of the 21st century, affecting various ideological orientations. According to Burchardt (2017), changes in ideological orientation do not substantially transform political practices in Latin America, as elites and various interest groups often alternate their terms in power. Thus, we observe only slight variations in the nuances of political practices in relation to previous authoritarian regimes. According to T © 2023 Global Journals Volume XXIII Issue VI Version I 29 Global Journal of Human Social Science - Year 2023 ( ) F Author α : Federal University of Pará -Brazil, Ph.D. in Social Sciences, Professor, Graduate Program in Political Science, Federal University of Pará. e-mail: jaimecunha@ufpa.br Author σ : Federal University of Pará -Brazil, Ph.D. in Social Anthropology. Professor, Graduate Program in Political Science. e-mail: ifcardoso@ufpa.br

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