Global Journal of Management and Business Research, B: Economics and Commerce, Volume 23 Issue 3

13 Global Journal of Management and Business Research Volume XXIII Issue III Version I Year 2023 ( ) B © 2023 Global Journals The results of this table reveal that, in all three estimation methods, the development of Ghana's stock market is statically significant and negative at the 1% significance levels. This means that the development of the Ghanaian stock market induces a decrease in the attraction of the BRVM stock market. There is therefore a substitution effect between these two markets. In addition, the results of the FMOLS and CCR estimations show the existence of positive but non- significant effects of the development of the Nigerian stock market on the development of the BRVM stock market. However, the DOLS estimation proves the existence of a significant and positive effect. There is therefore a complementarity effect between the BRVM market and the Nigerian market. In general, the operations of the stock market are dependent on the operations of other stock markets in the world. Historical events such as the Russian- Ukrainian invasion are no exception. Econometrically, the DOLS estimate performs better with a predictive power of 0.678 or 67.8%. This research will be very useful to understand on the one hand that the DOLS estimator performs better in the presence of a cointegrating relationship between the variables studied. On the other hand, the study allows us to understand how the policies adopted by other nations affect the BRVM stock market. d) Estimation of the Error Correction Model (ECM) According to d'Engle and Granger (1987), the natural extension of cointegration is to estimate the short-term dynamics. Thus, having confirmed the presence of a cointegrating relationship, the results of the short-term estimates of the error correction model (ECM) are presented in Table 5 below. Table 6: Results of the Error Correction Model (ECM) Estimations Source: Prepared by the Authors based on the Results of the Eviews Software If we consider Certirus paribus, Table 5 above shows us that in both the short and long run, Ghana's stock market has a negative and significant effect on BRVM while Nigeria's has positive and significant effects on it. However, in the long run, all coefficients become increasingly significant, i.e. they are all significant at the 1% significance level. The speed of adjustment towards the equilibrium fulfilled the condition of the validation of the error correction model (RESID (-1)), i.e. it is negative and significant at the 5% threshold. It means that following a shock, the response variable of the BRVM stock market regains its equilibrium according to the frequency of 27.4 %. In other words, following a shock, the structural variables explain the BRVM's market capitalisation by 27.4% in the long term, and that the shock is completely resolved after 4 years (1/0.274=3.649). IV. C onclusion The objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of stock market integration in the ECOWAS region. This relationship has been widely studied in the Dependent variable WEAMU stock market Short-term estimate Variable Coefficient Prob. D (Ghana) -0.193** 0.089 D (Nigeria) 0.267** 0.018 RESID (-1) -0.274** 0.029 Constante 0.341 0.656 R² ajusté 0.273 Long-term estimate Variable Coefficient Prob. Ghana -0.759* 0.0000 Nigeria 0.364* 0.0000 Constante 15.603* 0.0002 R² ajusted 0.38 Note : *, **, *** denote the rejection of the null hypothesis at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels respectively Cointegration and Interdependence of West African Stock Markets