Global Journal of Science Frontier Research, H: Environment & Earth Science, Volume 21 Issue 6

Source: Author’s computation, 2021. Fig. 5: Trend chart of the number of treated and reported cases of malaria in the study area The year 2009 recorded a significant decline in the cases of malarial reported and treated in the study area as depicted by the sharp downward slope of the trend plot. During this period reported cases of malaria consisted of 20,209 patients, while treated cases consisted of 19,157 patients. What is most peculiar is that there was no significant difference between the number of treated cases of malaria and reported cases of malaria in the study area. The difference between treated and reported cases was 1,052 cases (patients). More so, this year recorded lowest cases of reported and treated cases of malaria across the entire timeframe (2003 to 2018) under consideration in the study. From the trend chart in Figure 5, it can be observed that is an upward movement in the trend plot between the year 2010 and 2011, signifying and increasing trend in reported cases of malaria, as well as treated cases of malaria in the study area. During this period, reported cases of malaria were 42,890 cases in 2010 and 55,505 cases in 2011, while treated cases consisted 31,700 cases (patients) in 2010 and 38,922 cases in 2011. From this data, it can be observed that there is a significant variation between reported cases of malaria and treated cases of malaria in the study area. Explicitly, 11,190 cases in the year 2010 were not treated, while 16,583 cases were not treated in the year 2011. Contrast to the year 2010 and 2011, the 2012 and 2013 carried downward sloping trend plot; signifying a decreasing trend in reported and treated cases of malaria. During this period reported cases of malaria were 42,619 cases in 2012 and 32,406 cases in 2013, while treated cases were 30,362 cases in 2012, and 21,505 cases in 2013. During these periods a cumulative case of 23,158 were left untreated. Looking at the trend chart (Figure.5), it can be observed that there is steady upward movement in the trend plot between 2014 and 2018, signifying and increasing trend in the reported and treated cases of malaria in the study area. During this period, a cumulative 252,595 cases of malaria was reported, while a cumulative 185,444 cases of malaria were treated. More so, a cumulative malaria cases of 67,151 were not treated. Overall, the upward nature of the trend lines in Figure.5 indicates an increasing trend in both reported and treated cases of malaria in the study area between 2003 and 2018. More so, the trend equation signifies a goodness of fit of the trend plot. The value of r 2 (0.0707) signifies a 71% variation in reported cases of malaria in the study area between 2003 and 2018. Similarly, the r 2 value of 0.1091, signifies an 11% variation in the number of treated cases of malaria in the study area between 2003 and 2018. In the discussion carried out between the researcher and the authorities of PHC unit, LGC, it was revealed that some of the factors attributed to the variation between reported cases of malaria and treated cases were; cost of treatment/drugs, inability to finance treatment by patients after diagnose, delay/shortage of supply malaria drug by WHO, especially in the year 2008. This work conform with the studies of Nyasa (2021). The cases of malaria witnessed in the area could be attributed to both physical and human induced factors (Sarah Moore, 2021), i e, precipitation creates mosquito breeding grounds, which promotes mosquito operations leading to high incidence of malaria in the study area (US. CDC, 2017). It could further be probably due to increased temperature experienced in the region (Fig. 1), i.e hence, high temperature leads to heat-upsurge, y = 627.9x - 1E+06 R² = 0.109 y = 757.0x - 1E+06 R² = 0.070 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Number of malaria cases (patients) treated/reported Year(s) Number of malaria cases (patients) treated Number of malaria cases (patients) reported Relationship between Climatic Variables and Incidence of Malaria and Asthma in Keffi Local Government Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria © 2021 Global Journals 1 Global Journal of Science Frontier Research Volume XXI Issue VI Year 2021 60 ( H ) Version I