Global Journal of Science Frontier Research, H: Environment & Earth Science, Volume 22 Issue 5

Autonomous Technology in Scenario by Rare Geophysical Processes (Underwater Focus) Tecnologia Autônoma Em Cenário Por Processos Geofísicos Raros (Foco Subaquático) Laís Raysa Lopes Ferreira Abstract- From an ecological perspective, scientific investigation of the “Earth system” reveals its complexity, evidenced by the interaction of geophysical processes – which occur in the “global atmospheric system”; in the “world ocean” – both favoring the “world climate”; in "the interior of the globe"; and, between each of these parts and outer space. Environmental risks (geophysical) exist due to the configuration of extreme circumstances (CAPRA, 1982; MCWILLIAMS, 2006; SKINNER and MURCK, 2011). In the nuclear age, and taking into account the possibility of employing emerging autonomous technology as a weapon of this category, a geopolitical risk exists (KAHN, 2007; NICHOLS et al ., 2022). Crossing between risks (geophysical and geopolitical) can be imagined (WEICK, 1989; GAUB, 2020; MCLENNAN et al ., 2021). Analyzing the plausibility of the coincident occurrence of risks (crossed – geophysical and geopolitical) as a critical uncertainty for scenarios – and due to the vulnerability of autonomous systems to the ( sui generis ) flow of fluids by unlikely geophysical processes – the present study ratifies the technology "in the sea” (underwater, in focus) as a possible threat to the “Earth-system”; in the conception of scientific thought for the 21st century. Concomitance between events would be very rare however plausibly – also of holistic impact yet immeasurable (hence, uncertain). Keywords: autonomous technology; underwater vehicle; earth system; deterministic chaos; geophysical processes; scenario; war games. I. I ntroduction rom a broad investigative perspective, Skinner and Murck (2011) scientifically present the planet as the “Earth system” – analyzing the Earth holistically (a “closed system”), as a set of parts or subsystems (geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere – each an “open system”) and interactive processes – the basis of “earth system science” (SKINNER and MURCK, 2011). Energy flows (external and internal) drive these processes (natural or anthropic) between the Earth's subsystems (SKINNER and MURCK, 2011). Due to systemic complexity, chaos theory (branch of mathematics) can be employed in its approach (for example, concerning the “global atmospheric system”) (SKINNER and MURCK, 2011). Author: e-mail: lalaraysa@hotmail.com Most of the surface of the “Earth system” is dominated by the “world ocean” about the extreme importance of the ocean in “controlling atmospheric composition” (SKINNER and MURCK, 2011; KANTHA and CLAYSON, 2000a; KANTHA and CLAYSON, 2000b). Ocean modeling is relevant for many applications such as fisheries management, pollution control – as well as for many naval operations (including the defense needs and the commerce between nations) (KANTHA and CLAYSON, 2000a; KANTHA and CLAYSON, 2000b). Dual-purpose, autonomous underwater technology (autonomous vehicles or systems; commonly known as drones or robots) challenges conventional maritime models. It is derived from industrial and scientific revolutions and also characterizes a specific aspect of the “military revolution” scenario (set up by elements such as technological change, systems development, operational innovation, and organizational adaptation) (FOSSEN, 1994; KREPINEVICH, 1994; FOSSEN, 2002; GRIFFITHS, 2003; MOURA, 2007; BREIVIK and FOSSEN, 2009; DO and PAN, 2009; INZARTSEV, 2009; FOSSEN, 2011; BAYLIS et al ., 2018; FANELLI, 2020; YAN et al ., 2021). However, if used as a “weapon” the technology “at sea” poses risks (SPARROW and LUCAS, 2016; BAYLIS et al ., 2018; PIOTROWSKI, 2018; FERREIRA, 2021a; FERREIRA, 2021b; NICHOLS et al ., 2022; SLOFER, 2022; FERREIRA, 2022). Once vast military power is concentrated in the hands of “unpredictable countries” in a nuclear age (KAHN, 2007); also, not being easy to obtain information about the perceptions that lead to conflict in international relations; geopolitical risk exists (KAHN, 2007; KAHN et al ., 1976; GAUB, 2020; MCLENNAN et al ., 2021). Environmental risk also exists (MCLENNAN et al ., 2021) – about processes in the flow of geophysical fluids (planetary – from the inside of the earth; from the oceanic circulation; and the atmosphere – and astrophysical), unpredictable (MCWILLIAMS, 2006; VALLIS, 2016). Due to the interaction of the geosphere with the ocean, fluids can escape from the ocean floor to the overlying water column, which can affect the F 1 Global Journal of Science Frontier Research Volume XXII Issue V Year 2022 15 ( H ) Version I © 2022 Global Journals