Global Journal of Science Frontier Research, H: Environment & Earth Science, Volume 24 Issue 1

Chasing the Unknown the Quest for Decarbonisation Miguel Schloss Author: President, Surinvest Ltda. and member of Bretton Woods Committee; former Executive Director of Transparency International and Director of Corporate Planning of World Bank. e-mail: m.schloss@sur-invest.com I. S ummary & I ntroduction "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." (A. Einstein). sn’t it noteworthy that an agreement reached in the1990’sto combat climate change has triggered to this day so much conflict (with strong deniers of the existence of the problem and militant supporters of the need to address the issue)? Are the temperature increases over the last decade an indication that global warming is finally catching up with us? Or are the paltry changes in our energy matrixes and policies an indication of failure of the decarbonization effort, or the inherent limitations of human endeavors to address emerging global issues? Perhaps both obviously contradictory postures may signal that the discussion has become overly ideologized, and thus impervious to proper diagnoses that provide technically sound answers for effective response to the issue. The current discussion is loaded with partial and often poorly thought-out responses. Economic problems would be solved with more efficiency and growth; environmental concerns with more incentives and market signals – or others may argue for more controls, if not downright banning of coal, gas and any form of hydrocarbons, and their substitution by renewables to decidedly reduce emissions. 1 Everyone in love with their own answers and solutions. The time is ripe to put questions to the forefront, subjecting answers and solutions to scrutiny and review of evidence. As long as we maintain our infatuation with questions and not answers, there is hope. After all, responses are transitory; the questions, permanent. Similarly, the empirical evidence of greenhouse emissions is equally unclear, leading to unsettled discussions whether investments and policy actions will lead to internationally agreed goals. The following article summarizes the main statistical trends, to disentangle the different outcomes and range of projection, and identify possible causes and courses of action to achieve more effective results. II. T he R ecord “Dig the Well Before You Are Thirsty.” 未雨 绸缪 (Chinese Proverb) All things considered; indications are that we are reaching the warning points of crossing 400 ppm carbon in the air. This suggests that we are already exceeding the yearly average temperature threshold of + 1.5 c, and upper ranges of 2.4 c above pre-industrial levels. Moreover, of all countries, just four explain over half of the CO2 dischargers, and emitters concentrate on large economies — i.e., China, the US, the EU27, India, Russia and Japan, which discharge over 65% of global fossil emissions. While this does not provide a full answer to all problems that must be addressed, these numbers alone, already put some perspective on where to concentrate attention to achieve global impact. This should avoid the temptation to deal with the myriad of issues that may deflect from achieving tangible and much needed overall progress. Temperatures; Global Warming I Global Journal of Science Frontier Research ( H ) XXIV Issue I Version I Year 2024 17 © 2024 Global Journals Figure 1